Bitcoin’s October Odyssey: From Uncertainty to Optimism

Since 2012, October has generally been a positive month for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Out of the last 12 Octobers (as far as back as reliable data is plotted) 9 of them had overall gains for the month. That puts October as having a 75% success rate for Bitcoin bulls. However, that does not mean that the 25% price increase this month was guaranteed.

The first two weeks of this October were vastly different from the final two. At the start of this October, Bitcoin was still stuck beneath the resistance of both the short-term price ceiling at $28,500 in addition to key technical indicators and studies that I pay the most attention to.

On Sunday, October 1^st, Bitcoin opened just below $27,000 (Bitstamp) and closed $1,029 higher at just below $28,000. However, it stopped short of breaching the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages, as well as the 200-week SMA. On Friday, October 6^th, Bitcoin would test the 100 and 200-day SMA for the third time that week moved above them in intraday trading but on every occasion closed for the day below those widely used and well-known technical indicators. Still, these attempts were enough to prompt me to publish an article on the 6^th proclaiming that Bitcoin had moved out of a bearish to neutral short/midterm prospectus.

The second week of October was disheartening, as Bitcoin went on to lose the ground it had made the previous week, trading at a low of $26,500 on Wednesday Oct 11^th. Many analysts were calling for a change to the ‘Uptober’ gains usually witnessed, claiming that this year would break away from BTC’s usual trend.

On Monday October 16^th is when the current rally in Bitcoin began, sparked by a false report by Cointelegraph claiming that BlackRock’s ETF had been approved by the SEC.

“This caused an immediate and swift knee-jerk reaction as the market sold off just a quickly as it rose causing prices to dip even lower than what they had been at upon the New York markets opening, within 15 minutes there was price range of nearly $2,000 because of the false news, $113.75 million in long positions and $78.87 million in short positions were liquidated within 4 hours.”

-Joseph Wagner (Oct. 16^th)

The claim would quickly be retracted, and an apology was made by the crypto news outlet, however the ETF fever had already begun. Although the high of nearly $30k that day was far from its close on the day, Bitcoin held on to around half of the gains made on the rumor of ETF approval. This FOMO filled the minds of traders who had any doubt of what effect an ETF would have on Bitcoin’s price. Seeing as a spot ETF is almost a certainty at this point, traders did not want to be on the sidelines and miss the move that will surely follow. Bitcoin has since that day remained above all the major moving averages, and the 20-day exponential moving average, which is in my opinion the best average to determine short-term trend.

What Began on Monday the 16^th was the early stages of Bitcoins recent surge, closing that day at highest the price point in 14 months. By Friday BTC would close above critical long-term studies and be in full-bull mode. On Friday, Oct. 23^rd, Bitcoin would move beyond the 200-week SMA, which has been a successful bottom indicator for the coin going back many years. On the same day, it would also take out resistance at the current long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $28,737.

On the fourth (current) week of October, Bitcoin would demand attention once again as it gained over 10% in trading that day. Once again, BTC moved on prospects looking increasingly optimistic for BlackRock’s spot ETF approval as a ticker symbol for the ETF was listed on the NYSE. This would be the single largest daily gain for Bitcoin in 2023 at 10.24%.

BTC White Paper Published on October 31^st 2008 Possible Reason for ‘Uptober’

Today, the end of the week Bitcoin remains elevated currently (5:50 PM HST) trading above $34k at $34,060. So, with only four days left for the month of October I can say with some certainty that the ‘Uptober’ phenomenon is still very much a real thing. Not Many people are aware that October 31^st is the Anniversary of the “Bitcoin Whitepaper” so in a few days Bitcoins guiding doctrine will be15 years old. This year October might as well be March because the crypto winter feels long gone and Spring seems to be filling the air and the markets.

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